In this week’s Collapse Life/Courageous Conversation book chat, Zahra Sethna and Susan Harley wrapped up their discussion of Neil Howe’s The Fourth Turning Is Here — a book that attempts to map history through repeating cycles of crisis and renewal.
The conversation quickly expanded beyond the book itself to ask an intriguing question: are we really witnessing a natural historical rhythm, or is it something more engineered? From 9/11 and the financial crisis to populism, polarization, and today’s growing sense of global instability, the chat explored whether this moment of upheaval is inevitable or well planned in advance.
Howe says each cycle of history ends with a period of crisis — what he calls the “fourth turning” — and that our current crisis began around 2008 with the global financial collapse and could extend into the early- to mid-2030s. Today we discussed the specific phases that Howe says we go through during each “turning,” and how those seem to map closely to things that have happened in recent years.
It’s certainly a tidy framework, but as we discussed today, maybe it’s a little too tidy. One of the things we focused on was inspired by a comment from a member of the audience, Dan Roach, who said:
Many people now believe that the world-changing events are well planned and executed by a millennia-old group of controlling elites. In this sense, this is actually all well planned, thus in the context of this book we non-elites are controlled to behave and think the way they want.
In other words, if these cycles aren’t historical patterns but rather engineered processes, books like this might function as a kind of narrative anesthesia. If people believe upheaval is simply part of an inevitable cycle, they may become more passive about the forces actively shaping the world around them. After all, if crisis is inevitable, why bother resisting?
That idea sparked a deeper conversation about agency — something Howe’s framework seems to minimize. His theory suggests generational archetypes largely drive historical change: heroes, artists, prophets, and nomads each playing a role at different stages of the cycle. But that framing can also make individuals feel like passengers rather than participants in history.
One of the central insights from today’s chat is that crises are not endings, they’re openings. They create the conditions in which new systems can emerge, but they don’t have to dictate what those systems will look like.
If we are truly living through a historical “winter” — a period of breakdown before renewal — then the question becomes what systems should be preserved, and which ones should be allowed to collapse before the coming spring? What kind of world might emerge on the other side and what role do we play in bringing it forth?
Next week, we’re going to be talking about the global food system. Rising energy costs, fertilizer shortages, and fragile supply chains are already beginning to reshape how food is produced and distributed. Inspired by the book ‘Fiat Food’ by Mark Lysiak and Saifedean Ammous, we’ll begin to explore how the modern food system became entangled with financial markets, industrial agriculture, and geopolitical power.
Please be sure to join us for that chat, since the question of food may prove far more consequential than many people realize.
Until then, thank you to everyone who joins these weekly conversations. We’re truly grateful for your thoughtful insights and your commitment to seeing the world with eyes wide open.
Can’t wait to do it again — see you next week!
