Trump just killed the penny. Is this a harbinger of the Empire's demise?

When an empire eliminates its lowest coin, it’s essentially admitting its currency is worthless. Rome did it before its collapse — is it the same playbook for America?

One of the key markers of the decline of the Roman Empire was the progressive debasement of its currency. The silver denarius, once the backbone of the Roman economy, was steadily degraded. By the third century AD, it contained only trace amounts of silver, effectively rendering it fiat currency. As a result, inflation skyrocketed. Prices soared, wages became meaningless, and economic stability crumbled.

And so it appears there’s nothing new under the sun, given the latest currency decree in the US.

The penny, which was once made of pure copper, has long since been reduced to a cheap zinc core with a thin copper coating. Now, even this diminished version is too expensive to mint. Inflation has eroded the dollar’s value so much that the smallest denomination is irrelevant.

Last year, the US Mint said it costs 3.7 cents to produce and distribute one penny. On Sunday, Donald Trump announced he instructed the Treasury to halt penny production, citing rising costs.

Just as the denarius lost meaning in the late empire, the loss of the penny signals that small denominations of the dollar are functionally useless. In light of the continual debasement of the ubiquitous copper round, the fact that the penny stuck around as long as it did was no doubt about optics. Today, unable to ignore its potential death throe (or maybe death row!), the imperial government can no longer afford the charade around monetary strength.

Just like Rome, the US has engaged in unchecked money printing to fund its vast empire — both militarily and socially. The Federal Reserve has expanded the money supply at an unprecedented rate, particularly since 2008, and even more so post-2020. The inevitable result? The dollar, much like the denarius, is worth less and less with each passing year.

In Rome, the economy became increasingly dependent on government handouts. The famous bread and circuses strategy — providing free grain and grand spectacles — was a way to keep the masses docile and distracted. But this was unsustainable. As Rome expanded, the cost of maintaining the empire’s bureaucratic and military structure became a crushing burden on the treasury. The empire taxed its citizens heavily, but even that wasn’t enough to cover expenses, so they resorted to debasing the currency and imposing ever more oppressive tax policies.

Sound familiar? The US government is drowning in debt — now exceeding $34 trillion — with massive entitlement programs like Social Security, Medicare, and various subsidies consuming an ever-growing share of the federal budget, despite the best efforts of the Musk DOGE team to get ahead of the exponential growth. Meanwhile, the government continues spending on everything from foreign wars to domestic welfare. Just as Rome attempted to appease its increasingly dependent citizenry with handouts, modern America relies on government assistance programs to keep social unrest at bay.

The problem is this strategy cannot be sustained — just as it couldn’t in Rome. Eventually, the resources run out, trust in the system erodes, and the social contract collapses.

The parallel of military overextension

Rome’s legions were once composed of disciplined citizen-soldiers who fought for the republic and later the empire. But over time, the military became professionalized and increasingly dependent on mercenaries — non-Roman recruits who often had no loyalty to the empire itself. When Rome collapsed, large portions of its army were composed of Germanic tribes who were as likely to turn against Rome as to defend it.

The US military has followed a similar trajectory. While it still has a professional standing army, it relies heavily on private military contractors — modern mercenaries like Blackwater (now Academi) and other groups that profit from endless foreign wars. In addition, America’s recruitment crisis has forced the military to lower standards, accept recruits with criminal records, and even consider non-citizen enlistments, eerily reminiscent of Rome’s declining legions.

Moreover, just as Rome spread itself too thin — defending vast frontiers from Britain to Mesopotamia — the US is engaged in numerous conflicts and commitments around the world. From Ukraine to the Middle East, Taiwan to NATO obligations, America is stretched beyond its limit. The defense budget keeps ballooning, yet readiness and morale within the armed forces are in decline. Just as Rome eventually could no longer defend itself, one has to wonder how long the US can sustain its global empire, even in the warm glow of all the “winning” going on in Washington, D.C. these days.

A final parallel worth noting is the decline of civic engagement and national unity. In Rome, as the empire grew more corrupt and inefficient, citizens became disengaged. Political participation eroded, elites lived in excess while the common people suffered, and traditional Roman values were replaced with decadence and moral relativism. The Roman Senate, once the core of governance, became an impotent, corrupt institution.

Today, we see the same decay in the US. A ruling class — whether in politics, finance, or media — enriches itself while the average American struggles with declining real wages, rising inflation, and an ever-growing sense of political disenfranchisement. Congress has an approval rating consistently in the gutter, elections are viewed with increasing suspicion, and civil discourse is in tatters. Bread and circuses have simply been replaced by government largesse and digital distractions.

When an empire starts withdrawing its lowest-value coin, it’s a sign that the money isn’t worth what it once was. But this isn’t just about a coin, it’s a symbol of deeper structural problems — problems that have played out before in history. Rome didn’t disappear in an immediate, smoldering pile; it declined for centuries before finally collapsing. Likewise, the US isn’t going to disintegrate overnight. But the signs are there: economic instability, runaway government spending, military overextension, a declining sense of civic duty, divisions among the populace, and an increasingly debased currency. Rome’s collapse was a steady and constant process, and the small signs — the kind people ignore — were the harbingers of the greater fall to come.

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