Notes from the edge of civilization: December 14, 2025
Manhattan luxury real estate heats up; a propane shortage in New Jersey threatens a freeze out; and The Economist's trippy cover prediction for 2026.
After months of hand-wringing about a supposed millionaire exodus following Zohran Mamdani’s election as mayor of New York City, the market has supposedly delivered an inconvenient verdict: so far, the exact opposite is happening.
According to Niklas Hackstein, a luxury real estate specialist with Compass Realty, Manhattan’s ultra-luxury market (properties worth $20 million and up) just logged its strongest month in two years, while the $5-$10 million segment is up more than 20% since October. If this is what capital flight looks like, it’s doing an excellent impression of a buying spree. November’s highest sale, Hackstein reports, was a 7,000 square foot unit in Central Park Tower, on West 57th Street, which sold for nearly $50 million.
This surge directly undercuts previous breathless warnings that New York’s wealthy would flee en masse if a democratic socialist took office. Despite Mamdani’s support for tougher tenant protections, rent freezes, and a proposed 2% income tax surcharge on earners above $1 million, high-end buyers are moving in, not out. High earners have strong incentives to stay put. Wall Street bonuses hit record highs in 2024, and some payouts could climb another 25% this year.
This isn’t new. During the pandemic, commentators confidently predicted a mass wealth escape. Instead, New York gained 17,500 millionaire households between 2020 and 2022, according to the Fiscal Policy Institute.
Mamdani’s policies may yet reshape the city; that story hasn’t been written. But the idea that Manhattan’s elite are already fleeing belongs in the same category as every other premature obituary for New York City. Money is staying exactly where it has always stayed — close to power and profit.
Meanwhile, across the Hudson, New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy recently declared a state of emergency because of a propane supply shortage, which affects approximately 186,000 residents who rely on propane for their heating.
The shortage, caused by a power outage at a Pennsylvania propane plant, comes as temperatures dip dangerously low and the region braces for an incoming winter storm. We point this out only to note that, at this stage in the Resilience Olympics, all it takes is one outage at one facility for nearly 200,000 people to suddenly be at risk of freezing.
This next story somehow escaped our attention when it came out a few weeks ago. H/T to Michael Snyder for his analysis.
Each year, The Economist magazine publishes its ‘The World Ahead’ issue, described as their “annual predictive guide to the coming year.” In 2024, they were focused on the “interplay between Donald Trump, technology and radical uncertainty.” This year, editors are asking the following:
Will the trade war cause an economic slowdown? Will AI produce a boom, a bust or a backlash? Will Mr Trump’s unconventional approach to diplomacy bring lasting change to the Middle East? Will the bond markets call time on rich countries that are living beyond their means?
All good questions. However, what we’d really like to know is how you interpret the symbolism on display on the front cover. Here it is for your deeper inspection — be sure to get right in close — the devil is, as the saying goes, in the detail. (BTW, click on the image below to zoom in.) We can’t wait to read your thoughts in the comments section.
There is only so much a mayor can do without support of the State. The governor isn't a supporter of the socialist now the mayor of New York. It is going to be a lot of hot air since "free" stuff cost money from someone and the City of New York doesn't have it and can't print it. Thankfully.